Thursday's UEFA Nations League A slate is dominated by form disparities that cut sharply across the continent — Spain arrives in Prague unbeaten in five with a 2.8 goals-per-game average against a Czechia side that has lost all five matches, while England's offensive firepower at Wembley stands in stark contrast to Croatia's recent collapse. Our football predictions today centre on five fixtures where recent trajectory, defensive solidity and home advantage create meaningful separations.
1. Türkiye v Belgium
Türkiye v 
Belgium - 2026-10-02: Belgium 3-0 Türkiye
Türkiye have won just one of their last five outings, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 2.6 conceded per game — numbers that paint a picture of a team struggling defensively in particular. Belgium, by contrast, sit at 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded, a symmetry that suggests greater control and balance. The recent head-to-head is limited but instructive: Belgium's 3-0 victory on 2 October 2026 was emphatic, and it aligns with Türkiye's broader vulnerability.
Played in Izmir at the Gürsel Aksel Stadium in partly cloudy 18°C conditions, this fixture will suit Belgium's measured approach. Türkiye will need to tighten their back line significantly to avoid repeating the pattern of the last five games. Belgium have conceded just 1.4 per outing — a marker of defensive discipline that Türkiye's 1.0 goals-per-game average is unlikely to breach. The visitors' structure and recent form suggest they have learned how to manage this tie effectively.
Our full assessment is available on the board.
2. Armenia v Cyprus
Armenia v 
Cyprus - 2026-10-02: Cyprus 2-0 Armenia
- 2023-03-28: Armenia 2-2 Cyprus
- 2017-11-13: Armenia 3-2 Cyprus
Three recent meetings between these sides have averaged 3.7 goals per game — a volatile metric that reflects the competitive nature of this pairing despite Cyprus's recent edge. Armenia have drawn one and lost three of five, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.2 per game. Cyprus are the stronger outfit on paper, with two wins in their last five and a notably superior defensive record of 0.6 goals conceded per outing, offset by 1.4 scored.
The 2-0 win for Cyprus in early October feels like a statement, yet the historical record — including Armenia's 3-2 victory in 2017 and a 2-2 draw in 2023 — hints that this tie remains competitive at its core. Yerevan in overcast 4°C conditions may suit a tighter, more cautious approach, potentially constraining the flow that the 3.7 goals-per-game average suggests. Armenia will have opportunities if they can organize defensively; Cyprus will be clinical if space opens.
The details are laid out in full on our site.
3. Italy v France
Italy v 
France - 2026-10-02: France 1-1 Italy
- 2024-11-17: Italy 1-3 France
- 2024-09-06: France 1-3 Italy
- 2018-06-01: France 3-1 Italy
- 2008-06-17: France 0-2 Italy
Five recent meetings have produced 3.2 goals per game on average, but the trend is downward: a 1-1 draw just six weeks ago on 2 October 2026 represents the flattest result in this sequence, which includes a 3-1 France win, a 3-1 Italy reversal, and historical scorelines of 3-1 and 2-0. Both sides are respectable in form — Italy have won two of five with 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded; France have three wins in five with 2.2 scored and 1.6 conceded. France's attack edges Italy's, but Italy's defence is tighter.
San Siro in Milan will host this clash in rain and 12°C conditions. Rain often suppresses open play and encourages compact defending, which could dampen the goal output. Both teams have shown they can play low-scoring football in recent outings — the October draw exemplifies this — and neither has a pressing need to commit bodies forward recklessly. The venue's history and the wet conditions may well conspire to keep this encounter constrained.
See our full breakdown on the site.
4. Czechia v Spain
Czechia v 
Spain - 2026-10-03: Spain 3-1 Czech Republic
- 2022-06-12: Spain 2-0 Czech Republic
- 2022-06-05: Czech Republic 2-2 Spain
- 2016-06-13: Spain 1-0 Czech Republic
Spain's form is among the cleanest in this slate: five consecutive wins, 2.8 goals scored per game and just 1.0 conceded. Czechia are in freefall, winless in five with a dire 0.4 goals-per-game average and 2.6 conceded. The recent meeting on 3 October 2026 ended 3-1 to Spain, and their longer head-to-head record — four meetings, 2.8 goals per game on average — shows Spain dominant in most instances.
Stadion Letná in Prague will be cold and rainy at 6°C, conditions that typically reward organization and efficiency. Spain have demonstrated both. Czechia's scoring drought and leaky defence suggest they will struggle to manufacture genuine chances, and Spain's ruthless conversion rate makes any opening punitive. The weather may slow tempo slightly, but Spain's technical superiority should override any levelling effect the conditions might offer. Czechia will need a marked shift in mentality and output to trouble their visitors.
The full analysis is on the board.
5. England v Croatia
England v 
Croatia - 2026-10-03: Croatia 0-7 England
- 2026-06-17: England 4-2 Croatia
- 2021-06-13: England 1-0 Croatia
- 2018-11-18: England 2-1 Croatia
- 2018-10-12: Croatia 0-0 England
- 2018-07-11: Croatia 2-1 England
England's form is exceptional — four wins in five, 4.0 goals scored per game and 1.4 conceded. Croatia have won just one of five, averaging 1.0 scored and 3.2 conceded, a defensive profile that screams vulnerability. The recent meeting on 3 October 2026 was brutally one-sided: England 7 Croatia 0. The broader head-to-head record across six meetings shows England increasingly assertive, with the gap widening markedly in 2026.
Wembley in clear 6°C conditions will amplify England's advantage. Their attacking potency — 4.0 per game — will find space against a Croatia back line that has conceded 3.2 per outing. England's 1.4 conceded per game suggests they are organized enough to avoid complacency defensively. Croatia's sole bright spot is their recent win, but the trajectory suggests they are a side under severe pressure. The home crowd, the clear weather, and England's offensive harshness all point toward another dominant display.
Our detailed call is available on the site.